我们能否预测太阳何时爆发？日冕物质抛射的物理机制与预测

本项目研究会产生日冕物质抛射（CME）与不会产生CME的太阳活动区的演化。通过分析多个太阳观测台的数据，研究旨在识别可观测特征以预测CME发生，从而改进与英国气象局合作开展的空间天气业务预报。

Job description: Details: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are enormous eruptions of magnetised plasma from the Sun and are the primary drivers of severe geomagnetic storms at Earth. Despite decades of research, we still cannot reliably determine when a solar active region will produce a CME or distinguish in advance between magnetic configurations that will erupt and those that will remain confined. This represents both a fundamental problem in solar physics and an important gap in current space weather forecasting capability. The magnetic energy that powers a CME is stored in non-potential magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere, often associated with filaments and magnetic flux ropes. A range of processes may bring these structures towards eruption, including magnetic flux emergence, magnetic reconnection, the formation and evolution of magnetic flux ropes, and changes in the balance between the erupting structure and the overlying magnetic field that confines it. Determining which observable signatures indicate that an active region is evolving towards eruption remains a major outstanding question. This project will investigate the evolution of CME-producing active regions and non-CME producing active regions, combining observations of the photospheric magnetic field from SDO/HMI with coronal and filament observations from SDO/AIA and models of the coronal magnetic field. It will identify and quantify potential pre-eruptive signatures, including magnetic flux cancellation, strong shear and electric currents, the formation of flux ropes, filament activation and slow rise, and changes in the overlying confining magnetic field. By comparing eruptive active regions with regions that produce confined activity, the project will determine which signatures provide the most reliable indication that a CME is likely to occur and how far in advance they can be identified. A key aim will be to translate this improved physical understanding into quantities that could support operational CME forecasting. Working in partnership with the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre, the project will assess which observations and diagnostics are sufficiently robust, timely and accessible to provide useful information to space-weather forecasters. The ultimate goal is to help bridge the gap between understanding the physical processes that trigger CMEs and developing an operational capability to forecast their occurrence before an eruption is observed. The project will involve analysing data from both ground and space-based telescopes and will utilise more than two decades of high-quality data that have been obtained including datasets from instruments with major MSSL leadership such as Hinode’s Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer and the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager onboard Solar Orbiter. Techniques will be developed to enable a large study of coronal mass ejection source regions so that statistically significant results can be generated. The candidate will also develop a deep knowledge of the international efforts in space weather and will visit the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre in Exeter. Whilst at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre, the candidate will work with the space weather team, learn how space weather forecasts are issued and will develop an understanding of how scientific research is translated to operational space weather forecasting. Desired Knowledge and Skills The successful candidate will need an undergraduate degree in a related subject (such as physics or maths) and have a strong interest in solar physics. Strong computational skills in a relevant programming language (ideally Python) will be highly beneficial, although training will be available. Good statistical and mathematical skills are required but training will also be given. During the project, the candidate will develop skills in data analysis and the application of magnetohydrodynamics to the study of solar eruptions.

Entry requirements: An upper second-class Bachelor’s degree, or a second-class Bachelor’s degree together with a Master's degree from a UK university in a relevant subject, or an equivalent overseas qualification.

How to apply: Our STFC studentships starting on 1st October 2027 are open for applications until 22 nd January 2027. For details of how to apply please refer to our website: PhD Projects and Application Process | Faculty of Mathematical & Physical Sciences